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NAR Pres Updates on HVCC Appraisal Issues

The Latest from NAR Voices of Real Estate


Appraisal Update, Posted by Charles

Posted: 02 Jul 2009 11:15 AM PDT

I just returned to Texas after a whirlwind trip to the east coast, where I met with the New York Attorney General’s office and officials from the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Fannie Mae. The topic: appraisals, and specifically the concerns and perspectives that you, our REALTORS and appraiser members have raised about the implementation of the HVCC.

First and foremost, I want to thank all of you for sharing your comments on the Voices of Real Estate blog this past week. Steve Brown’s entry, “All’s Not Quiet on the Midwestern Front” has received more than 120 comments – all of them very insightful. In fact, your thoughts were so important to the discussion that we shared them directly with the staff from the New York Attorney General’s office as prime examples of the problems we are seeing. We also shared the results of a recent survey of members, which highlights the overall impact of appraisal challenges on the mortgage transaction.

Those of you who have met me know that I don’t pull any punches. So, let me give you my honest assessment of my meetings:
1. All of the officials we met with wanted to hear about our experiences, and they conceded that there are problems.
2. All agreed that we can and should immediately address gaps in communication and education to help resolve how the HVCC is being applied.
3. How we resolve other more fundamental problems is not yet clear and will likely require a longer-term effort.

So what’s next?

First, in the weeks ahead NAR will be working closely with everyone in the industry, including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Appraisal Institute and government officials, to clarify the HVCC and how it should be applied. As many of you noted in your comments on this blog – pointing fingers is not the solution, we have to work together to improve the process for everyone.

Second, NAR is working with Congress to move legislation that would place an 18-month moratorium on the Home Valuation Code of Conduct, so that we can consider how best to modify the HVCC and to resolve additional concerns that many of you have raised about it and other appraisal issues in the current environment.

As always, we will keep you posted on our efforts on this blog and on Realtor.org. I encourage you to check out our HVCC Myths and Facts for more information. We also will be updating our FAQ to answer many of the questions you have raised in your e-mails and posts.

Of course, we encourage you to continue to share your thoughts and experiences with us whenever you can. With your participation, we will move the housing market forward, “United Toward Tomorrow.” – Charles McMillan, 2009 NAR President

Posted in Announcement, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , .

Title Companies Move to Eliminate Some Services

This information has just been posted by CAR. You may also have been contacted by your Title Representative regarding services they are no longer able to provide. CAR is not in agreement with some of the legal interpretations that have led to this curtailment of services and is working diligently to persuade the Department of Insurance to re-v-sit the issue. CAR is also working hard to find alternate and inexpensive sources of the services we have come to rely on our part hers in Title to provide.

One final note – please don’t yell at your Title Rep. This is entirely not of their doing and they are as frustrated and hamstrung by this as we are.

TITLE COMPANIES TRIM DOWN PROPERTY PROFILES IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTMENT OF INSURANCE LETTER

Effective immediately, title companies may be eliminating much of the information they provide on property profiles.  The California Department of Insurance recently issued a letter taking the position that title companies may only give the following information on property profiles:

  • Names of owners of record of a specified real property;
  • Description of real property; and
  • Property characteristics as defined under section 408.3 of the California Revenue and Taxation Code, which means year of construction of improvements, square footage, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, number of units, acreage, and other attributes or amenities (such as swimming pools, views, zoning classification or restrictions, and use code designations).

The Department further indicated its position was based on existing law and unrelated to SB 133, the Title Industry-sponsored bill that greatly restricted promotional activities to licensees and became effective this year.  C.A.R. disagrees with this position and is aggressively working to persuade the Department of Insurance to reconsider in light of the legislative intent language of the older law on which the decision is based.

Meanwhile, REALTORS® will likely encounter a title company’s refusal to provide free of charge any other information, such as recorded documents, sales comps, tax bills, or demographics.  This type of information is still available through other sources, such as county recorder’s offices, tax assessor’s offices, and governmental and public record websites and private services for a fee.   Clients may also have their own copies of some of the documents.  In response, C.A.R. is proactively seeking to provide REALTORS® with a viable solution to this situation, by exploring legal and legislative options, as well as the possibility of providing new member services or benefits to lower the cost of obtaining the information.


Realegal® is published by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, a trade association representing more than 175,000 REALTORS® statewide.

Edited by: Stella Ling, stellal@car.org

To contact C.A.R., click on this link:
http://www.car.org/?view=ContactUs

Written inquiries regarding Realegal® should be directed to Stella Ling, stellal@car.org.

Copyright © 2009 CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.)

Posted in Announcement, Association Updates, Legislative Updates, SRCAR Alerts. Tagged with , .

NAR Legislative Analysis of American Clean Energy Act

NAR Legislative Analysis

The American Clean Energy and Security Act

National Association of REALTORS® Government Affairs Division

500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC, 20001

Houses Passes Climate Bill with Energy Labeling Exemption

The U.S. House of Representatives approved H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act by Reps. Waxman (D‐CA) and Markey (D‐MA). The bill, re‐numbered H.R. 2998, includes NAR‐supported provisions which were championed by Rep. Perlmutter (D‐CO) that exempt existing homes and buildings from the bill’s energy labeling program.

After multiple meetings to discuss the Waxman‐Markey bill, the NAR Land Use, Property Rights and Environment Committee directed NAR staff to concentrate on the real estate provisions in the bill.

As a result, NAR issued calls for action and made this a talking point for Capitol Hill visits during its recent Midyear meeting. Overall, Realtors succeeded in making a number of positive changes to the bill.

Thanks to Realtors, the House‐approved bill:

• Limits the energy labeling provisions to new construction only;

• Prohibits the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating carbon emissions from residential and commercial buildings under the Clean Air Act;

• Eliminates an early proposal to bolster a private right of action so that citizens could sue over minor climate risks under the Clean Air Act; that proposal is no longer in the bill as passed by the House;

• Provides property owners with significant financial incentives, matching grants and the tools to make property improvements and reduce their energy bills; andrenewable energy, block grants and credit for upgrades in mortgage underwriting.

While H.R. 2998 includes many positive changes, NAR will have additional opportunities to make further changes to address unresolved issues, such as the bill’s building energy code targets. The Senate must still pass its version of an energy and climate bill. There would be a House‐Senate conference committee to reconcile differences between the House and Senate bills. The timing for a vote in the Senate is not clear as the Environment and Public Works Committee still must develop the climate provisions to “cap and trade” carbon emissions. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee has approved the energy provisions (to which climate provisions wouldbe coupled), which include building standards that are more realistic and preserve state flexibility to develop and enforce building codes.

While the bill as approved by the House represents a significant improvement over the bill that was introduced, NAR will continue to work to address these issues as the legislative process continues.

An NAR summary of climate issues, which summarizes NAR policy, may be accessed on Realtor.org. Here is the link:

http://www.realtor.org/fedistrk.nsf/c2c6e17e27e92119852572f8005cd953/4c238a3be8220682852573d4006f1

Posted in Announcement, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , , .

NAR Background on American Clean Energy & Security Act

The overwhelming number of comments and questions generated by the House of Representatives passing the American Clean Energy and Security Act requires additional information to address the issue with members.  Attached is an NAR Info Pack that you can post on your websites and distribute to members.

Here are the Legislative Facts:

  • Does not create a federal energy audit requirement for real property;
  • Exempts existing homes and building from any federal guidelines for new construction energy efficiency information labels.
  • Prohibits the implementation of any labeling during a sales transaction.
  • NAR successfully argued  that  point of sale labels would have stigmatized existing property and complicated transactions
  • Leaves the decision to states as to whether to require energy audits, disclosures, etc.
  • Provides property owners with significant financial incentives, matching grants and tools to make property improvements and reduce their energy bills;
  • Prohibits the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating residential and commercial buildings under the Clean Air Act;
  • Eliminated an early proposal to allow citizens to sue over minor climate risks under the Clean Air Act; and
  • Establishes green building incentives for HUD housing, including a loan program for renewable energy, block grants and credit for upgrades in mortgage underwriting.

The bill has passed only the House.  It is NOT LAW and NAR is working closely with the Senate to make additional improvements Here are the background facts:

In addition to our Land Use and Environment Committee consideration of this issue, NAR has been engaged since the appointment of a Presidential Advisory Group in Summer 2008

They met during 4 separate meetings  and heard expert testimony regarding the full range of Climate/Energy Issues

The PAG developed NAR’s Climate Change Principles

During the November 2008 convention the Land Use and Environment Committee and the NAR Board of Directors approved the PAG recommendation

Meetings, via conference call, with the leadership of the Land Use Committee and Forum, as well as with former PAG members and half dozen Realtor associations that had addressed climate bills at the state level continued in early 2009 in anticipation of an Energy Bill.  The consensus of all

these groups was to concentrate on the real estate provisions — especially energy labeling.

Additional information is available at www.realtor.org (See attached file: 2009 NAR INFO PACK AMERICAN CLEAN ENERGY AND SECURITY ACT 0701 143226.pdf)

Posted in Announcement, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , .

Update on HVCC/Appraiser Problem – Relief May be in sight.

Here an update on the POS Appraisal situation that’s been driving everybody crazy. Hang in there – somebody is listening and relief may be in sight.

HR 3044 TO PLACE 18-MONTH MORATORIUM ON HVCC

California Congressman Gary Miller has introduced H.R. 3044, which would place an 18-month moratorium on the recently imposed Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC).  The HVCC was worked out through an agreement between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the New York Attorney General’s Office (NYAG) in response to an investigation by the NYAG into Fannie and Freddie.

The purpose of the HVCC was to try and insolate the appraisal process from undue influences.  The HVCC attempted to do this by placing tight controls and restrictions on the ordering of the appraiser, as well as purposes for communicating with the appraiser during the process.  However, the implementation of the HVCC, which came about by neither regulation nor Congressional statute, has resulted in appraisals that cost more, take longer to perform, and are inaccurate.  C.A.R. has heard from members throughout the state of similar difficulties with the HVCC and its negative impact on the California real estate transaction.  C.A.R. is supporting H.R. 3044, and is asking California’s Congressional Delegation to sign onto the bill as a cosponsor.

More info:
https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/relatedsellinginfo/appcode/pdf/hvccfaqs.pdf

Posted in Association Updates, Good News You Can Use, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , , , .

CAR Update on AB957 Realtor Win

AB 957 UPDATE:  GOOD NEWS!  EFFORTS TO WEAKEN REALTOR® LIABILITY PROTECTIONS FAIL
Due to the opposition of C.A.R. and allied interests, an effort to weaken liability protections for REALTORS® failed in the Senate Judiciary Committee last week.

AB 957 (Galgiani), the “Buyer’s Choice Act” was originally introduced to make sure that buyers of REOs could have their choice of title and escrow providers, by including federal RESPA rules in state law. C.A.R. supported AB 957.

However, recent amendments to the bill would have weakened REALTOR® liability protection when using a substitute disclosure. This liability protection is already included in state law.  With those amendments, C.A.R. changed its position to OPPOSE.

Last week, many REALTORS® received a “Red Alert” type communication asking them to contact their legislators in support of AB 957. This red alert was NOT sent by C.A.R. It was sent by representatives of a company that sells substitute disclosure reports. This company was actively pursuing amendments that would have made REALTORS® vulnerable to lawsuits.

In the Senate Judiciary committee the offending language was later removed from the bill. C.A.R. now SUPPORTS AB 957. This is a big win for REALTORS®!

More Info:
Contact DeAnn Kerr at deannk@car.org or Stan Wieg at stanw@car.org.

Posted in Announcement, Good News You Can Use, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , .

CAR Updates the 3% Withholding Tax Issue 6-29

Here a current (as of 6/29) update on the 3% withholding portion of the state budget. Because our representatives are all Republican and are against this and any other tax increase, we will not be in the loop on this one but be assured CAR is doing everything they can on our behalf.

Heads up on your end. I’ll be sending two Red Alerts tonight – one for the Senate and one for the Assembly – on this issue. They will only go to ALL REALTORS® who reside in Democratic districts, except for those in Sen. Lou Correa’s district. We are asking them to call their legislators using our toll-free number to ask legislators to keep the withholding proposal out of the budget. Please note, that some members will receive two of them if they reside in a Democratic Assembly district and a Democratic Senate district. I’ll try to note that clearly in the Red Alert. REALTORS® who live in Republican seats will not get the Red Alerts.

Here’s the most recent update on the Budget and 3% Withholding issue. Late last night the Assembly approved a set of budget bills that included the withholding proposal. The state Senate did likewise this afternoon. It was mostly a party line vote, with Democrats supporting and Republicans opposing. No Republican supporting either set of measures and a few Democrats voted NO or did not vote. I don’t have final roll calls for you at this point. The Governor has said he will veto all the measures approved last night or today, so everyone gets to start over. As I’ve said earlier, our goal is to keep the withholding proposal out of the budget altogether. I’d appreciate it if everyone working with a Democratic legislator would call your legislator back and ask them to work to keep the withholding proposal out of the next version of the budget.

Budget Update: Controller John Chiang has announced that he would have to start paying the state’s bills with IOUs on July 2 if the budget impasse isn’t resolved quickly. The state Assembly on Thursday approved three bills representing $5 billion in savings intended to address the state’s immediate cash-flow problem. Later that day, the state Senate rejected all three bills. That may have been due to Governor Schwarzenegger announcing after the Assembly action that he would veto all three bills. The Governor said that he is opposed to solving the state’s $24.3 billion budget deficit on a piecemeal basis. It appears that legislators will have to “go back to the drawing board” to formulate a new budget that the Governor will sign.

The Budget Process: While every member of the legislature votes on the state budget, very few members are actually involved in the formulation of the budget. Generally speaking, the budget is produced by top legislative leaders – of both parties – working in concert with the Governor’s office. However, sometimes the majority party will force a vote on a budget over the objections of the minority party and the Governor. As a result, details of a budget proposal may not be available until the budget is actually being voted upon. In such situations, it is not uncommon for legislators to protest that they have not had an opportunity to fully review the proposed budget – a budget that for the state of California is in the range of approximately $100 billion.

Posted in Announcement, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , , , , .

CAR Efforts Provide Win on AB957

Good News!

Efforts to Weaken REALTOR® Liability

Protections Fail

Due to the opposition of C.A.R. and allied interests, an effort to weaken liability protections for REALTORS® failed in the Senate Judiciary Committee yesterday.

AB 957 (Galgiani), the “Buyer’s Choice Act” was originally introduced to make sure that buyers of REOs could have their choice of title and escrow providers, by including federal RESPA rules in state law. C.A.R. supported AB 957.

However, recent amendments to the bill would have weakened REALTOR® liability protection when using a substitute disclosure. This liability protection is already included in state law.  With those amendments C.A.R. changed its position to  OPPOSE.

In the past few days, many REALTORS® received a “Red Alert” type communication asking them to contact their legislators in support of AB 957. This red alert was NOT sent by C.A.R. It was sent by representatives of a company that sells substitute disclosure reports. This company was actively pursuing amendments that would have made REALTORS® vulnerable to lawsuits.

Yesterday in the Senate Judiciary committee the offending language was removed from the bill. C.A.R. now SUPPORTS AB 957.

This is a big win for REALTORS®!

For More Information

For more information, please contact DeAnn Kerr at deannk@car.org or Stan Wieg at stanw@car.org.

Visit the web address below to tell your friends about this.
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C.A.R. e-Blasts are published by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, a trade association representing more than 175,000 REALTORS® statewide.

Executive offices:
525 South Virgil Ave., Los Angeles CA 90020
phone (213) 739-8200; fax (213) 480-7724

Legislative offices:
980 Ninth Street #1430, Sacramento CA 95814
phone (916) 492-5200; fax (916) 444-2033

To view C.A.R.’s Privacy Policy click on this link:
http://www.car.org/aboutus/privacypolicy

To contact C.A.R., click on this link:
http://www.car.org/?view=ContactUs

Posted in Announcement, Good News You Can Use, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , .

AG Brown Sues City Over Housing Cap

Once again our AG Jerry Brown steps up.

ag

News Release

June 24, 2009
For Immediate Release
Contact: (916) 324-5500

Brown Sues to Invalidate Pleasanton’s Illegal Housing Cap

Pleasanton, Calif. – Attorney General Edmund G. Brown Jr. today sued the City of Pleasanton to remove its “draconian and illegal” limit on new housing, a significant cause of traffic congestion, air pollution and urban sprawl in the East Bay and Tri-Valley area.

“Pleasanton’s draconian and illegal limit on new housing forces people to commute long distances, adding to the bumper-to-bumper traffic along 580 and 680 and increasing dangerous air pollution,” Brown said. “It’s time for Pleasanton to balance its housing and its jobs and take full advantage of its underutilized land and proximity to BART.”

Brown today filed a motion to intervene in Alameda County Superior Court that would force Pleasanton to lift its housing cap. The suit was initially filed by the nonprofit group Public Advocates on October 17, 2006.

In 1996, Pleasanton adopted Measure GG, which imposed a strict, permanent cap of 29,000 total housing units within the city. At the time, Pleasanton had 21,180 homes, apartments and condominiums. The cap, therefore, allowed fewer than 8,000 new housing units to be built within city limits, regardless of demand or state law requirements.

The City is now on the verge of adopting a General Plan update, which calls for the creation of 45,000 additional jobs by 2025, while retaining the 29,000 limit on housing. This, Brown contends, violates state law, which requires every California city to provide sufficient housing to accommodate its fair share of regional needs.
The State requires Pleasanton to provide 3,277 additional housing units between 2007 and 2014. The cap, however, allows for only 2,000 more to be built – and that does not account for additional housing which will likely be required after 2014.

In the past 10 years, job growth in Pleasanton has nearly doubled — from 31,683 to more than 58,000. Yet, the number of new housing units has not kept pace with demand. This is despite the fact that there is ample land for development, including property adjacent to the Pleasanton BART station. Unless the city lifts its housing cap, this and other land near transit will most likely not be utilized for housing.

As a result of the cap, many workers have been unable to find affordable housing within Pleasanton. A 2005 Association of Bay Area Governments study found that 79 percent of Pleasanton’s 58,000 employees lived outside Pleasanton, and their commutes can take two hours per day or more.

Brown’s suit demands that Pleasanton’s housing cap be repealed – so that jobs and housing can increase in proportion with each other.

In his suit, Brown contends that:

- Pleasanton is violating state law by enforcing a housing cap that prevents the City from accommodating its fair share of the regional housing need, as required by state housing element law (Gov. Code §65583.).

- Pleasanton’s housing cap violates the state constitution, which prohibits cities from adopting ordinances that conflict with state law.

- Pleasanton’s general plan is internally inconsistent, in violation of California Government Code Section 65300.5. The City’s existing land use element contains the housing cap limit of 29,000 housing units, while its housing element recognizes that the cap must be addressed because it prevents the City from meeting its fair share of regional housing needs.

If Pleasanton continues to enforce its housing cap, the consequences for the region include:

- Increased traffic congestion and longer commute times. Interstate 580 has some of the longest commute times in the region, with evening eastbound commuters delayed 7,410 hours and morning westbound commuters delayed 5,120 hours in 2007.

- Urban sprawl. Communities outside of Pleasanton will continue to lose farmland and open space to accommodate Pleasanton’s workers. These communities will have to build more schools, fire and police stations to keep up with anticipated growth.

- Increased greenhouse gas emissions. More people will be commuting for longer periods and over greater distances. Pleasanton’s CO2 output was 1.388 million tons in 2008. When the City is projected to reach 105,000 jobs in 2025, it is estimated its CO2 output will increase to 1.940 million tons. The increase is the equivalent of adding 120,000 cars to the road every year.

- Increased dependence on foreign oil.

Transportation is the largest contributor to California’s greenhouse gas emissions. The California Air Resources Board estimates that transportation is currently responsible for 38 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions in the state. Transportation accounts for 50 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in the Bay Area.

Brown has reached several agreements and settlements with local governments and businesses across California to help them reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Some of his actions include:

- A landmark settlement with San Bernardino County which established a greenhouse gas reduction plan that identifies sources of emissi ons and sets reduction targets.

- An agreement with Stockton requiring it to identify and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, permit construction of thousands of new residential units within its current city limits, develop a rapid transit bus system and require all new buildings to be energy efficient.

- An agreement with ConocoPhillips that offsets greenhouse gases attributable to an oil refinery expansion in Contra Costa County.

An agreement with the Port of Los Angeles that identifies and reduces greenhouse gas emissions generated from port operations.

Brown’s suit against the City of Pleasanton is attached.

# # #

Posted in Announcement, Economic Outlook. Tagged with , .

All Chamber Mixer @ The Diamond

Here’s a great Networking Opportunity. And if you read down far enough, you’ll see $1.00 beer. Network – schmetwork – they’ve got $1.00 beer.

Annual All Chamber Business Networking Mixer

Hosted by The Lake Elsinore Hotel & Casino

Thursday June 25th, j oin the Lake Elsinore Valley Chamber of Commerce at our Annual All Chamber Mixer from 5:30 to 7:30 PM hosted by the Lake Elsinore Hotel & Casino. Take advantage of this unique gathering of Business owners from the entire 15 corridor. Your entry includes; Vegas style gaming theme( Blackjack & Texas Hold-em games), with appetizers and sodas being served from 5:30 PM to 7:30 PM in the Diamond Club, raffle and much more!! The Lake Elsinore Storm will feature their Thirst Thursday promotion, selling selected beers for $1.00 throughout the evening. The Diamond Club will be open for the entire baseball game.Location The Diamond Club 500 Diamond Drive Lake Elsinore, CA  92530 Admission: $10.00 Reservations Required For More Info: Steve Smaldone (951) 245-HITS

Posted in Announcement, Good News You Can Use. Tagged with , , .

Jeffries Issues Mushroom Alert!

California Legislature

Kevin Jeffries

AssemblyMEMBER, sixty-sixth district

Mushroom Alert!!!

June 23, 2009

To:  California Families and Taxpayers

From:  Assemblyman Kevin Jeffries

Re:  State Budget Vote Called – Without Details available for the Public or Legislators

In a surprise announcement Assembly Speaker Bass announced at 3pm today that the State Assembly will hold an unusual Wednesday Floor session, presumably to address the growing $23 billion state budget deficit.

Legislators may be asked to vote on $13 billion in cuts and $8 billion in taxes, or possibly larger cuts or larger tax increases.  The problem is that nobody really knows for sure because NO information is available to the public or Legislators as to what is being planned. It appears that we are again going to be asked to walk out onto the Assembly Floor and vote without ever having seen any specific language in advance of the vote.  It could be massive tax increases. It could be devastating cuts to local government funds. It could be large scale releases of convicted felons from prisons. It could be all of the above!

Simply put – we don’t know what the majority party Leadership is going to ask of us in just a few hours.  Once again, we’re being treated like mushrooms—kept in the dark and served up heaping piles of…  legislation!

Of course, this sort of closed government wouldn’t be possible if the legislature would pass ACA 8, which I introduced earlier this year to force legislation to be published 24 hours before a vote could be taken.

If you are concerned about the potential for trouble, as you should be, you can watch the proceedings live on the California Channel (carried by some cable systems) or online at www.calchannel.com If you cannot catch it live, you can watch the archived version online later.  Warning:  This Session could be a long one, lasting into the evening.

Speaking of archives, for a sense of the political culture of the Assembly, watch the beginning of this past Monday’s Assembly Floor session. You may find the “opening prayer” to be quite illuminating.

###

Assemblyman Kevin Jeffries represents Western Riverside County and Northern San Diego County, including the communities of Jurupa, Riverside, Lake Elsinore, Wildomar, Murrieta, Temecula, Fallbrook, Bonsall, Valley Center, and Julian.

Posted in Association Updates, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , , .

The REAL Red Alert – Oppose the increased Realtor Tax

Just a quick update for you on the issue I spoke about at the Broker/Owner/Manager meeting last week, the Democratic Party proposal to withhold an additional 3% tax from each of your checks as independent contractors. The reason you haven’t heard more is that CAR is using a targeted Red Alert working with just the legislators who might support the Realtor Party. As I mentioned last week, I’ve spoken with Senator Hollingsworth and Assemblymember Jeffries and they are both supporting our position – but they’re Republicans. We can only keep this bill from passing if some Senate Democrats join them/us.

Anyway, here’s a note from CAR . If you happen to know any of these Gentlemen personally, contact DeAnn or Stan at CAR about how you might help. I thought we told them no new taxes just a month ago. Oh well.

First of all, thank you to all of you who have responded so far to last week’s Red Alert on the 3% withholding proposal contained in the most recent version of the state budget. We understand this budget may have a vote tomorrow or Thursday. If it’s passed, we think the Governor may veto it, even though it looks like he’s comfortable with the withholding requirement. Our goal is to have it removed from subsequent versions of the budget.

FYI only. We have issued a targeted Red Alert to all REALTORS® residing in targeted Senate districts asking them to call their Senator using our toll-free line. The Senators targeted for this mobilization are: Calderon, Corbett, Florez, Negrete McLeod, Padilla, Price, Wright and Yee. In a few days our additional phone line will be up and we will target specific Assembly Members for the same message.

In the meantime, if you haven’t already done so, please talk to your assigned legislator(s) and get back to me with any intelligence. Some of the most useful information we have received are from Key Contacts who have spoken to their legislator or the chief of staff. Even if you don’t think you’ve got anything worth sharing, please email me so I know that you’ve responded.

On another note, a red alert was sent to some of our members from a company providing substitute disclosures asking that they contact legislators in SUPPORT of AB 957 – the Buyer’s Choice Act. Unfortunately, C.A.R. is now OPPOSED to the bill. I’m attaching the communication we sent to some members and to the local associations. If asked about it, please ask people not to respond to this alert from Property ID.

For more information, please contact DeAnn Kerr at deannk@car.org or Stan Wieg at stanw@car.org.

Posted in Association Updates, Legislative Updates, SRCAR Alerts. Tagged with , , .

False Red Alert – CAR OPPOSES AB957 – the Buyers Choice Act.

Beware of non-C.A.R. Red Alert!

“Buyers’ Choice Act” Has Been Amended to

Increase Your Exposure to Lawsuits!

Please beware! Many REALTORS® have received a “Red Alert” type communication asking that they contact their legislators in support of AB 957, the “Buyers’ Choice Act.”

While C.A.R. had been supporting AB 957, the legislation was recently amended to reduce the liability protection that REALORS® have under existing law when an NHD or other substitute disclosure (pest control report; geology report) is provided in the transaction. Due to these amendments, C.A.R. has no other option but to change its position and OPPOSE AB 957.

C.A.R. does NOT have a Red Alert out on this bill. C.A.R. does NOT support this bill. C.A.R. OPPOSES this bill as amended and urges you NOT to respond to the non-C.A.R. Red Alert!!

For More Information

For more information, please contact DeAnn Kerr at deannk@car.org or Stan Wieg at stanw@car.org.

Thanks everyone!

Posted in Legislative Updates, SRCAR Alerts. Tagged with , , .

Democrats Want To Control Another Area of Your Life.

If you are a gun owner or even if you are not, this should be of concern to you. California Democrats have introduced legislation to severely limit sales of ammunition, ban gun shows in the Cow Palace and eliminate your right to re-load your own ammo by outlawing the sale of black powder and other elements.

I don’t care if you’re a ‘gun nut’ or not, this should be scaring you. Once again it’s the government meddling in places they don’t belong, restricting access for legitimate gun owners and acting in direct contra-indication to the rights bestowed on us by our constitution.

Do you really think banning sales of more than 50 pieces of ammunition a month will do ANYTHING to deter criminals? No, it will impact the recreational gun owner who enjoys a weekend of shooting (and there are lots of them). Do you think banning gun sales at the Cow Palace will eliminate criminals easy access to guns? Not in the least – plus for Democrats it’s just the first step toward outlawing gun sales in any publicly owned venue, then any privately owned venue, then…

I hate to sound trite but ‘When guns are outlawed – only outlaws will have guns’. Democrats will not be happy until every single freedom you and I enjoy is either taken away completely or placed under the benevolent supervision and control of ‘the government’ or whomever they see fit to assign as arbiters of justice and freedom. Stalin tried it. Hitler gave it a run. It’s in the news today from Iran. Now it’s news from Sacramento – like those boneheads don’t have enough to worry about in this fiscally and morally bankrupt state. As if Mark Leno’s comedic performance on the budget webinar last week wasn’t enough, now he’s stepping even further away from anything he knows anything about.

Well, it probably doesn’t concern your freedom – after all, you’re not one of those gun owners. But let me re-iterate a slogan that I fear all too much. ‘When they came for the Jews I said nothing, for I am not a Jew. When they came for the Gypsies, I said nothing because I am not a Gypsy and didn’t want to make waves. When they came for the Catholics, I said nothing because I’m not a Catholic and didn’t want them to notice me. Then they came for me … and there was nobody left to stand in my defense.’

If you don’t stand for something, you stand for nothing. I’m not a gun owner and this BS infuriates me. Hopefully you will take a moment. Sen John Benoit is Vice-Chair of the Public Safety Committee and local to the Riverside/Palm Springs area. Please read up on the issue and let our legislators know they should be concentrating on more important matters – like saving our failing state - not worried about injecting themselves into yet another area of our lives.

Two Anti-Gun Bills Scheduled to be Considered Next Week!
Please Contact Your State Legislators Today!

Assembly Bill 962 and Senate Bill 585 are scheduled to be considered on Tuesday, June 30.  AB962 will be heard in the Senate Public Safety Committee and SB585 will be considered by the Assembly Public Safety Committee.

Sponsored by Assembly Member Kevin De Leon (D-45), AB962 would make it a crime to privately transfer more than 50 rounds of ammunition per month, even between family and friends, unless you are registered as a “handgun ammunition vendor” in the Department of Justice’s database.  Ammunition retailers would have to be licensed and store ammunition in such a manner that it would be inaccessible to purchasers.  The bill would also require purchasers submit to fingerprinting, which would be kept in dealers’ records and subject to inspection by the Department of Justice.  Lastly, mail order ammunition sales would be prohibited.

SB585, introduced by State Senator Mark Leno (D-3), would prohibit the sale of firearms and ammunition on the property or inside the buildings that comprise the Cow Palace.  In short, SB585 is a stepping-stone to banning gun shows on all publicly-owned property in California.

It is imperative that you stand-up and respectfully make your voices heard!  Please contact the members of the Senate Public Safety Committee and urge them to oppose AB962.  Also, please contact the members of the Assembly Committee on Public Safety and insist that they defeat SB585. Contact information can be found below.

SENATE PUBLIC SAFETY COMMITTEE:

State Senator Mark Leno (D-3) – Chair
(916) 651-4003
senator.leno@senate.ca.gov

State Senator John J. Benoit (R-37) – Vice-Chair
(916) 651-4037

State Senator Gilbert Cedillo (D-22)
(916) 651-4022

State Senator Loni Hancock (D-9)
(916) 651-4009

State Senator Robert Huff (R-29)
(916) 651-4029

State Senator Darrell Steinberg (D-6)
(916) 651-4006

State Senator Roderick Wright (D-25)
(916) 651-4025

ASSEMBLY COMMITTEE ON PUBLIC SAFETY:

Assembly Member Jose Solorio (D-69) – Chair
(916) 319-2069
Assemblymember.solorio@assembly.ca.gov

Assembly Member Curt Hagman (R-60) – Vice Chair
(916) 319-2060
Assemblymember.Hagman@assembly.ca.gov

Assembly Member Warren T. Furutani (D-55)
(916) 319-2055
Assemblymember.Furutani@assembly.ca.gov

Assembly Member Danny D. Gilmore (R-30)
(916) 319-2030
Assemblymember.Gilmore@assembly.ca.gov

Assembly Member Jerry Hill (D-19)
(916) 319-2019
Assemblymember.Hill@assembly.ca.gov

Assembly Member Fiona Ma (D-12)
(916) 319-2012
Assemblymember.Ma@assembly.ca.gov

Assembly Member Nancy Skinner (D-14)
(916) 319-2014
Assemblymember.Skinner@assembly.ca.gov

Posted in Gino's Rants, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , , .

Homebuyer Tax Credit Update

As many of you know, the $8,000 First Time Buyer Tax Credit is scheduled to expire in November of this year. Your national Association of Realtors® was pushing for an expanded bill last year – either make the $8,000 apply to everybody and/or make it a $10,000 or $15,000 credit. All those proposals are back on the table as our legislators consider what to do in the face of the continuing foreclosure epidemic.

•A Senate bill to expand the tax credit to $15,000 for any home buyer regardless of income was introduced this month by Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga. It is co-sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn.

“It would go a long way toward inducing trade-up buyers into the market,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR.

•A House bill to keep the $8,000 credit in place until June 2010 and expand it to all home buyers was introduced last month by Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Texas. It also would provide a $3,000 credit to homeowners who refinance.

•Another bill in the House, introduced by Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Texas, would extend the credit to all home buyers through 2010.

The Business Roundtable, a consortium of CEOs from large companies, urged Congress this month to expand the tax credit to $15,000 and make all home buyers eligible.

“The issue is how do we stimulate the move-up market, and that’s essential for the economy,” says Richard Smith, CEO of Realogy, the parent company of Century 21, Coldwell Banker, Sotheby’s International Realty and ERA.

“I think it’s going to be a bipartisan effort,” Smith says. “The issue is how to pay for it.”

The current tax credit does not apply to singles earning more than $95,000 a year and couples who earn more than $170,000. Some business leaders want the income caps eliminated.

Buyers do not have to repay the tax credit if they occupy the home for three years or more.

“A lot of people are taking advantage of it,” says David Thomas, a Realtor in Washington, D.C., who adds that expanding the credit would boost the market. “That would be a fantastic idea, to enhance and expand the incentives.”

Posted in Announcement, Association Updates, Good News You Can Use. Tagged with , , .

A Successful Loan Modification thru Making Home Affordable.

Tuesday after speaking to the City Council about our housing market, several people chased me out as I left the chambers. No, not for the usual reasons, but to share stories and ask about getting help with their housing problems.

One story I still hear way too often in spite of all our efforts to get the word out was a story of fraud. One gentleman lamented that he had sent $2,500 to a Florida company that promised to get his loan modified. Not only has nothing been done in three months, but now they don’t even answer the phone there and their website states they no longer do business in California. Nice!

What should he do?

My advice – kiss the $2,500 good-bye and don’t send anymore money to scam artists. I did put him in touch with the District Attorney and the Attorney General because how is one individual going to sue a company clear across the country – especially a company that was probably founded on fraudulent grounds and specializes in flim-flam? That he possesses no significant resources and has only a halting command of English doesn’t make it any easier for him to proceed and undoubtedly made him a prime target for the unscrupulous. I’ve also put him in touch with a legitimate counseling service and the HUD website and hope it’s not too late for him to recover.

home affordableOn the flip side, last night I got a call from a good friend of mine on an altogether happier matter – his loan modification had been approved! Honest. I don’t know about you but this is the first success story I’ve heard from the Making Home Affordable program and it was a welcome relief from all the failures experienced by so many. There may be rays of sunshine out there somewhere, folks.

chaseMy friend – let’s call him John – said he was fed up with the 20 calls and letters he was getting every day offering to refi or modify his loan for a fee – or to make his mortgage go away completely. From being my friend for years he knows all about fraud and only recently came to realize how pervasive it is in the housing industry. He found the onslaught of offers frustrating and very insulting in their blatant attempts to rip him off.

wfAnd it’s not that John was in imminent danger of losing his home but being self-employed they have seen a substantial decline in their own business the past couple years and are finding that the money runs out before the month does anymore. So they contacted their lender, Chase, on-line and he said the process couldn’t have been easier or simpler. They filed the appropriate paperwork on March 8 and this month their monthly mortgage payment will be reduced by over $200 – or about 18%. Granted we’re not talking huge numbers here (especially for California) but how many people do you know who would be able to stay in their home with even that amount of relief?

hudNow over the years John and Betty have been prudent homeowners. They bought their house during the last big drop for about $90,000. After 16 years and two kids, the house needed some updating and repairs so they refi’d in 2007 but only took out the amount they needed for the update. Their current mortgage is about $125,000 though at the time they could have sucked more than $300,000 equity out of the house. They also have the good fortune to have a Fannie/Freddie backed loan, which is not all that common in California – especially after the over-heated run-up the past few years. And they still have positive equity in their home and they are not delinquent in their payments even though they’ve been paying a $38 late fee for so long it seems like part of the mortgage.

baThe modification was accomplished through an interest rate adjustment only – the principle and term remain the same. Based on individual circumstances he said there are programs where the principle might be reduced or the term extended to 40 years in combination with an interest rate reduction but those options didn’t apply in their case. Their assigned caseworker was personable and almost always answered her phone immediately.She encouraged them to be diligent in their follow-up every week or two, was happy to answer questions and the promise of an answer within 120 days was actually less than 90.

rivcoAs John pointed out – this is a legitimate program for legitimate people. I know I’m happy as heck for my friends as they do a lot for our community with minimal compensation. It’s great to see deserving people get something for a change.

I’ve sprinkled a variety of company logos throughout this post. If you click on any of them, it’ll take you to the company website where the details of their modification program is available. The Making Home Affordable site even has an easy on-line form to see if you might qualify. It couldn’t get much simpler. The Help for Homeowners site is currently local to Riverside County, but expanding. This group puts on seminars throughout the region geared to put homeowners in touch with FREE or low-cost LEGITIMATE resources to help refi, modify, short-sale or even lose your home (everybody cannot be helped). This is done with every effort to provide relief, comfort and with as little impact as possible with an eye to future homeownership for those who can’t be helped right now.

There are resources available. Remember – if the deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is. If they ask for money up front – it’s probably a scam. Also be aware of ‘affinity’ fraud. Your own ethnic group will prey on you before others. Your church group, your workplace (nurses, teachers) are all more likely to be victimized by an inside job – somebody you may know and trust.

If you’re in trouble, start with YOUR OWN bank first. Be patient, be persistent and be professional. If they can help you they PROBABLY will. Banks don’t always seem to operate rationally or in their own best interest (or yours) but as John & Betty can tell you – sometimes it works just right and sometimes you win the lotto. Good Luck.

Posted in Announcement, Economic Outlook, Good News You Can Use. Tagged with , , , , , , , , .

CA Republican Caucus Disucsses State Budget

crc

Briefing Report: Assault on Taxpayer Protections

Overview

The last few summers in Sacramento have been extremely heated, more so because of budget talks inside Legislative chambers than the weather outside the Capitol. On one side, Republican lawmakers are holding the line on taxes. On the other, Democrats are trying to squeeze Californians for more of their hard-earned money. And when the budget is late, liberals accuse anti-tax lawmakers of being obstructionists – often pointing to the Constitutional requirement of a two-thirds vote on the budget and tax increases as the problem.

Since they can’t win by playing by the rules, Democrats this year have proposed a number of bills to change those rules and dismantle Constitutional protections against a variety of tax increases, including Proposition 13.

Constitutional Protections

When our state founding fathers drafted the California Constitution, they envisioned a document that would achieve balance between the people’s freedom and rights, and government’s role in protecting those rights. After the Preamble and Article I’s declaration of the people’s rights, Article II opens by stipulating that:

“All political power is inherent in the people. Government is instituted for their protection, security, and benefit, and they have the right to alter or reform it when the public good may require.”

To that end, the Constitution deliberately limits government’s ability to spend the people’s money and increase the people’s taxes.

Article IV – Protecting the people’s money

Section 12 (d) of Article IV of the Constitution dictates that appropriation of General Fund monies, primarily derived from taxes, is void unless it is approved by two-thirds of both houses of the Legislature. Appropriations of special funds, or non-tax revenues, require only a majority vote.

Clearly, the Constitution intends tax revenues to be expended with greater caution and fiduciary responsibility. And it is for this very reason that the state budget requires a two-thirds approval – to safeguard the people’s money.

Yet at a time when California must most stringently manage the state’s finances, liberals propose doing away with the two-thirds requirement so that they can spend taxpayer money, unrestrained.

Article XIIIA – Protecting the people from tax increases

On June 6, 1978, after being fed up with skyrocketing property tax increases that were forcing some owners from their homes, Californians enacted Proposition 13. This landmark measure added Article XIIIA to the Constitution to limit tax increases in a number of ways.

· First, it restricts property taxes to 1 percent of the assessed value; and caps increases in property tax assessments to 2 percent per annum.

· Second, it requires two-thirds of the Legislative membership to approve any increase in state taxes; and approval of two-thirds of the voters for special taxes in local jurisdictions.

These restrictions were instituted to limit the size of government and force governments to operate within its existing resources. This means not only reducing bureaucracy and eliminating special interest carve-outs, but when necessary, making hard decisions to trim some government services.

Attempts to Dismantle the Constitution

California is facing one of the toughest economic periods in the history of the state. Budget deficits are in the $24 billion range and growing. Unemployment rates are predicted to exceed post-World War II highs. The Unemployment Insurance Fund that provides financial compensation for the jobless is bankrupt. Businesses are closing their doors or moving out-of-state en masse. And millions of California families are struggling to stay in their homes.

And what is the Democrat-controlled Legislature doing to slow down this economic train wreck? Other than trying to appease labor union bosses and passing legislation that will add another $10 million to the budget shortfall, Democrats are busy trying to run end-games around the Constitution so they can take more taxpayer money. Take a look:

· Senate Constitutional Amendment 9 (Ducheny)1 takes California back to the pre-Proposition 13 days when taxpayer money was treated with the same disregard as other state revenues. It eliminates the Constitutional requirement that taxes be increased only if two-thirds of the Legislature approves the increase. This legislation would enable Democrats to easily increase a whole host of taxes, including the sales and income tax, by any amount for any duration.

· Senate Constitutional Amendment 6 (Simitian)2 makes it easier for school districts to increase parcel taxes on homeowners by eliminating the requirement that tax increases must receive approval by at least two-thirds of the people on whom the taxes will be imposed. Instead, parcel taxes would be increased when a mere 55 percent of the local electorate concur. Amid this housing crisis, parcel taxes will hurt low-income families more than those with greater incomes because the poorest families will pay the same amount as the wealthiest. In addition, it will allow wealthier areas to spend more money on their schools than other areas, which has been determined to be unconstitutional.

· Senate Constitutional Amendment 12 (Kehoe)3 allows counties to increase property taxes by more than 1 percent per year to raise money for specified purposes. In order to accomplish this, the proposal also allows tax increases with only 55 percent voter concurrence.

· Senate Constitutional Amendment 5 (Hancock)4 would altogether eliminate any shred of bi-partisanship on the annual state budget. Instead, a majority of the politicians in Sacramento could spend taxpayer money willy-nilly on their special interest pet projects and when it comes to paying for the costs, these same politicians can raise taxes and have Californians foot the bill, because they don’t pay income taxes.

The last time a measure to eliminate the two-thirds majority vote requirement made it to the ballot was in 2004. Proposition 56 failed miserably, with 65 percent of the voters objecting.

Two-thirds majority requirement at work

Tax-and-spend politicians claim that achieving a two-thirds majority is virtually impossible and that this requirement hinders their ability to raise revenues. Nothing could be further from the truth. What these liberals fail to recognize is that voters do, in fact, support tax increases if and when they deem them to be necessary and compelling.

Take, for example, the November 2002 election in Riverside County. Right after the dot-com bubble burst and taxpayers were taking huge losses in the stock market, voters in Riverside County overwhelmingly reauthorized their local sales tax increase by an approval rate of 69 percent. Being one of the most conservative counties in the state, Riverside and its success at reauthorization proves that the two-thirds majority vote requirement is effective, even during tough economic times. And history is filled with such examples.

With the current constitutional requirements, governments are less able to take their voters for granted. Instead, government must prove in a compelling way, to an appropriately skeptical citizenry, that a tax increase of a particular magnitude for a particular period and for a particular purpose is warranted. Should we expect any less from government?

Conclusion

Just last month, on May 19, 2009, Californians voted on Proposition 1A – a measure placed on the ballot by the Legislature that would have extended a variety of tax increases for two more years. On a 2-1 margin, the voters loudly and clearly said “NO” to taxes. Despite this anti-tax mandate, liberals are trying to find ways to get around the voters instead of listening to them. The Constitution stipulates that all political power is inherent in the people and they have the right to alter or reform government for the good of the public. If trying to force taxes on the people doesn’t warrant reform, what will? Did someone just say “California Tea Party”?

For more information on this report or other Revenue & Taxation issues , contact Therese Twomey, Senate Republican Office of Policy at 916/651-1501 or Therese.Twomey@sen.ca.gov

1 Authored by D. Ducheny, representing the counties of San Diego, Imperial, and Riverside
2 Authored by J. Simitian, representing the counties of San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz
3 Authored by C. Kehoe, representing San Diego County
4 Authored by L. Hancock, representing the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa

Posted in Announcement, Economic Outlook, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , , .

Here is more information on the so-called California Foreclosure Prevention Act.

“Foreclosure Moratorium” explained
Recent news headlines have caused confusion by mischaracterizing the new California Foreclosure Prevention Act as a “90-day moratorium” and incorrectly stating that the lender must modify delinquent loans before it begins foreclosure. In reality, the foreclosure process for certain owner-occupied residential first trust deeds has been extended by 90 days, effective June 15, but an exemption is available for lenders with comprehensive loan modification programs as defined by the Act.

Under pre-existing law, a lender must wait three months after filing a notice of default before it can file a notice of sale. The new California Foreclosure Prevention Act extending that time frame by another 90 days may not have much practical impact.  For more information on the new law, go to C.A.R.’s legal article “Housing Stimulus Laws for 2009” at http://www.car.org/legal/2009-qa/housing-stimulus-laws-2009/.

Posted in Announcement, Legislative Updates, Q & A. Tagged with .

Backroom Deal Bill Locked In Back room.

JEFFRIES’ BILL TO END SECRET DEALS HAS YET TO GET A HEARING

ACA 8 to require public notice on all legislation

(Sacramento)- It’s been five months since Assemblyman Kevin Jeffries (R-Lake Elsinore) introduced ACA 8, which would prohibit the legislature from voting on bills without notifying the public 72 hours in advance and making the bill available in print for at least 24 hours. But so far, ACA 8 has yet to receive its first public hearing. “I find it ironic that a bill that would put an end to back room deals, is being held hostage in a backroom somewhere.” said Assemblyman Jeffries, “So much for ‘open and transparent’ government.”

Jeffries introduced the measure over frustration with how the California Legislature conducts its business. “Midnight amendments, being told to vote on measures just minutes after receiving the bill, you name it; the things that are demanded of us defies all decorum of good government.” declares Jeffries, “Local governments have to comply with similar posting requirements in the Brown Act, why shouldn’t the State Legislature?”

As the Legislature prepares to address the looming $24 billion budget shortfall, Jeffries predicts the majority party will most assuredly offer up a last minute budget proposal with little notice or time for review; and expect legislators to vote on it. “That is exactly what happened just a few months ago, during the last budget impasse.” Jeffries points out, “We were given language for a bunch of ‘tax and spend’ measures only a few hours before being asked to cast a vote on them. How can I be asked to vote on a bill that I haven’t had a chance to read?”

As a constitutional amendment, ACA 8 requires a two-thirds vote in both houses of the legislature and passage by a majority of California voters. “This amendment reinforces the bedrock principles of the First Amendment and public participation in our government, and I am confident that if the people of this state have the opportunity to vote for this measure, it will pass overwhelmingly.  Frankly, I can’t even imagine an intelligent opposition campaign being waged on this issue,” said the Assemblyman.  “The only motive for not passing this legislation is to keep the people in the dark.”

###

Assemblyman Kevin Jeffries represents Western Riverside County and Northern San Diego County, including the communities of Jurupa, Riverside, Lake Elsinore, Wildomar, Murrieta, Temecula, Fallbrook, Bonsall, Valley Center, and Julian.

Posted in Announcement, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , , .

Is Obama’s Package Too Small?

Is the Stimulus Package Too Small?

June 15, 2009

By Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research

Okun’s Law, the GDP Multiplier, and the Stimulus

At a time when the press is filled with sometimes confusing economic news, one can use some simple economic concepts in understanding the economic outlook. Although economists frequently construct complex computer models, there are approximations that are useful in explaining the economy. Two fundamental economic concepts—“Okun’s Law,” and the “GDP multiplier” —are useful in examining the current recession and economic outlook.

“Okun’s Law”—actually a statistical relationship– states that for every one percentage point by which the actual unemployment rate exceeds the natural (or normal) rate of unemployment, there is a negative GDP gap of two percent. Assuming that the normal unemployment rate is 5% (various economists will use differing but similar estimates based on their analyses of the current economy), the recent unemployment rate of 9.4 percent suggests that the economy is operating at a GDP gap of 8.8 percent. Given that GDP is currently $14,089.7 Billion, we appear to have a GDP gap/recession of $1,462 Billion.

Additional spending by consumers, investors, exporters, and the government can provide a stimulus to the economy, acting to close the gap. For example, when the government spends money, the level of economic activity will increase—and the increase will be by more than a factor of 100%. This effect is called the “GDP multiplier”—increases in spending are circular and cause an economic increase greater than the initial spending. For this brief analysis, one could assume that a rough estimate of the current value of the GDP multiplier is 1.5.

The Stimulus Bill provides a boost of $787 Billion to the economy in deficit spending. However, not all of that increased spending will have an immediate effect in 2009, for much of the Stimulus spending doesn’t take effect until 2010 or even later. Assuming that $300 Billion of the Stimulus Bill takes effect this year, followed by an additional $400 Billion in 2010, the initial stimulus to the economy would be $450 Billion followed by an additional $600 Billion, for a total stimulus of $1,050 Billion by the end of 2010—just about enough to offset the current recession if additional government or other spending occurs–as is frequently the case. With a multiplier of 2 the outlook would be somewhat more favorable, but then again it appears that the GDP gap will continue to increase, given that unemployment is still rising. The actual numbers for the GDP gap and ultimate stimulus will probably vary, but the idea is clear: unemployment is associated with a GDP gap, and a government deficit may close some or all of the gap. Therefore, a simple quick calculation suggests that the stimulus may be too small.

The calculations presented are just rough estimates; a thorough econometric analysis considering the interplay of the financial markets with the economy would yield much greater accuracy and precision. However, these relatively rough calculations show how the course of economic activity may play out in the next two years. The relationship works best when there is slack in the economy, as is now the case: at near full employment the multiplier could actually be zero as government stimulus displaces private spending. The application of Okun’s law suggests that the current Spending Bill is having less of an impact than is desirable.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

“Copyright National Association of REALTORS®, Reprinted with permission.”

Posted in Announcement, Economic Outlook, Legislative Updates. Tagged with , , .